India is likely to see an increase in cotton acreage by up to a fifth in the upcoming 2026 kharif season, supported by a rebound in domestic prices, improving global demand for the fibre crop and expectations of a deficit monsoon due to a possible El Nino, stakeholders said. This is even as key producers such as the US and Australia are likely to see reduced area on rising cultivation costs and unfavourable returns.
Placement of cotton seeds in the North Zone in states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan has begun, where the seeding is expected to start in a couple of weeks.
“Next year cotton sowing is likely to increase by 20 per cent,” said Atul S Ganatra, former president, Cotton Association of India (CAI).
“This year Maharashtra farmers used the HTBT seed. They have got good yield and the Maharashtra cotton crop is likely to rise to 115 lakh bales, from last year’s 90 lakh bales. So yield is up drastically.
Most cotton farmers have got a price much higher than the MSP of ₹8,100 per quintal. If the next season’s MSP increases by about ₹500 to ₹8,600, the farmers will go all out with cotton sowing. Due to the El Nino effect, if the rains are less or delayed, then farmers will have no option and may go for cotton sowing. Cotton needs very less water to grow,” Ganatra added.
India’s cotton area had declined to 110.03 lakh ha hectares during kharif 2025, from the previous year’s 112.97 lakh ha as growers had shifted to other crops such as pulses and maize, among others. As per the second advance estimates, India’s cotton output during 2025-26 stood at 290.91 lakh bales of 170 kg each, over the previous year’s 297.24 lakh ha.
The expected El Nino conditions this year, which are typically associated with below-normal rainfall, could also influence crop choices. Farmers tend to prefer cotton over water-intensive crops such as paddy in deficit monsoon years. As a result, acreage may expand even if production risks persist.
Sources at the Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII) said: “Placements have started in the North Zone only. Indications are that cotton acreage is likely to be maintained. Amidst predictions of an El Nino, cotton will be a safer bet as a drought tolerant crop for kharif. Acreage expected is a minimum of 110 lakh hectares like last year”
Bhagirath Chaudhary, Founder-Director, South Asia Biotechnology Centre (SABC) in Jodhpur, said after a decade marked by pest devastation, weak prices and declining fibre quality, 2026 could mark a decisive turnaround for India’s cotton economy.
“As crude oil prices surge past $100 per barrel amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, the cost advantage of man-made synthetic fibres long buoyed by cheap petroleum will significantly erode, bringing back the golden era of natural cotton. This external shock presents a rare strategic window to revive the struggling cotton textile value chain and uplift nearly 70 lakh cotton farmers, who have suffered years of distress” Chaudhary said.
However, the price tailwinds alone are not enough, Chaudhary said, adding that “India must break away from prevailing policy paralysis on biotechnology and act decisively by fast-tracking long-pending technological interventions such as next-generation biotech traits, including BG-II RRF cotton, pink bollworm resistant Bt cotton and high-density planting systems. With the right policy push and innovation adoption, India can not only reclaim the gains of the Bt cotton era, but also build a more profitable, high-quality and globally competitive cotton textile sector.”
Anand Poppat of Cotyarn Tradelinks in Rajkot said the area will rise by a minimum of 10 per cent, subject to a regular monsoon.
Ramanuj Das Boob, a sourcing agent in Raichur said, the area could go up by around 10 per cent considering the growing demand and the recent price increase.
Acreages are likely to come down in key producers such as the US and Australia, where rising costs of cultivation triggered by the oil price rise, may prompt growers to reduce area, he said.
The National Cotton Council has projected US cotton acreage at 9 million acres in 2026, about 3.2 per cent less than in 2025, as growers face a fourth year of unfavourable market returns. Similarly, Australia is expected to see a decline in cotton output due to lower production, reflecting water availability constraints and acreage adjustments.
Source : Hindubusinessline
