The APEC Climate Center’s (APCC) has issued an “El Nino” watch, which means the drought-bearing weather could emerge in the upcoming seasons.
Above-normal temperatures are most likely across much of the globe, except for some parts of the southern tropical ocean, according to the report.
In particular, chances are more for above normal temperatures in India, besides western Europe, Central Asia, Russia, Australia, eastern North America and southern South America, it said.
APCC said there was an increased probability for below normal precipitation in India, Central America and northern South America. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the tropical Atlantic and southern Australia.
For India, this could result in the South-West monsoon being affected similarly to 2023. In 2023, El Nino lead to deficient monsoon and drought in at least 25 per cent of the country. In particular, it affected pulses, coarse cereals and paddy production, which led to India curbing rice exports.
El Nino typically leads to drought and prolonged dry spells in Asia, particularly India, and parts of Africa.
Seasonal Outlook
During March-May, above-normal precipitation is expected over the tropical North Pacific, the subtropical south-western Pacific, and the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Below-normal precipitation is predicted for the Maritime Continent, the off-equatorial South Pacific, and the north-western Pacific.
During June–August 2026, above-normal precipitation is expected over the equatorial and western North Pacific.
Between March and May, there is a strong probability of above-normal temperatures across the north-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, central Africa, West Asia, the equatorial Indian Ocean, eastern East Asia and the North Pacific, the tropical North Pacific and the southwest Pacific, the Caribbean, Mexico, the subtropical North Atlantic, the south-eastern South Pacific and central South America.
An enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures is expected across Europe, the Arctic Sea, Russia, Greenland, Central Asia, North Africa, Western Australia, the USA, and central and most of South America. A tendency toward above-normal temperatures is also expected for most of Australia and eastern Canada during this period, according to the APCC report.
An enhanced probability of below-normal temperatures is predicted for parts of the North Atlantic.
Rainfall trends
An enhanced probability of near-normal precipitation is predicted for the central to eastern equatorial Pacific and the coast of western North Africa.
APCC predicts a strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation for the central off-equatorial South Pacific and some parts of the Maritime continents.
An enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation is expected over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, the western and central North Pacific, and the off-equatorial eastern Pacific. A tendency toward below-normal precipitation is predicted for the south Indian Ocean, western Australia, Central Asia, the tropical western Atlantic, and the extratropical western Atlantic.
Enhanced probability for near-normal precipitation is predicted for West Asia during the time frame.
Heat pattern
A strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures is predicted across the north-eastern Atlantic, Greenland, the Mediterranean, Eastern Europe, West Asia, most of Africa, the northern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, western China, eastern East Asia, the North Pacific, western North America, the subtropical North Atlantic, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, and the tropical Pacific.
An enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures is expected for Western Europe, Central Asia, Russia, India, Australia, eastern North America, and southern South America.
A strongly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation is predicted for the off-equatorial North Pacific. An enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation is predicted for the tropical western North Pacific. A tendency toward above-normal precipitation is predicted for western Africa, the equatorial Indian Ocean, and central South America.
Source : Thehindubusinessline
